Week 5 and Week 6
June 12 & June 19 2006
Bioterrorism Risk Assessment:

Objectives:

1. 1. Upon completion of this two week section the student will be able to lecture on the risks that a state sponsored or postmodern terrorist group might obtain and deploy biological agents as weapons of terror.
2. 2. Upon completion of this two week section the student will be able to lecture on the relative risk of various methods of using a biological agent as a weapon of terror.
3. 3. Upon completion of this two week section the student will be able to lecture on the biosecurity risks created by the revolution in biotechnology and biotechnology education.
4. 4. Using information about the biotechnology revolution the student will be capable of developing new training programs for the public health and first responder communities.
5. 5. Upon completion of this section the student will be able to provide testimony about the currently existing vulnerabilities to the nations milk and cold drink industry.

E-Reserve Readings:

Chapters 1, 2, 3 and 10 in
Zilinskas, R
Biological Warfare: Modern Offence and Defense
Rienner Publishers, Boulder CO, 2000

Web based readings:
Bioterrorism — Preparing to Fight the Next War
David A. Relman, M.D.

NEJM Volume 354:113-115, January 12, 2006, Number 2
http://content.nejm.org/cgi/content/full/354/2/113

Chemical, Biological, Radiological, and Nuclear Terrorism:
The Threat According to the Current Unclassified Literature
Pages 1-46
http://www.ndu.edu/centercounter/CBRN_Annotated_Bib.pdf

Considerations for Investing Resources in
Chemical and Biological Preparedness
Pages 1-13
http://www.gao.gov/new.items/d02162t.pdf

Terrorist Motivations for
Chemical and Biological Weapons Use:
Placing the Threat in Context
http://www.fas.org/irp/crs/RL31831.pdf

Chart: Al-Qa`ida's WMD Activities
http://cns.miis.edu/pubs/other/sjm_cht.htm

2002 WMD Terrorism Chronology: Incidents Involving Sub-National Actors and Chemical,
Biological, Radiological, and Nuclear Materials
http://cns.miis.edu/pubs/reports/pdfs/cbrn2k2.pdf

Chronology of Incidents Involving Ricin
http://cns.miis.edu/pubs/reports/ricin_chron.htm

Assessing The Threat Of Bioterrorism:
http://www.cns.miis.edu/pubs/reports/zilin.htm

Al-Qa`ida and Weapons of Mass Destruction
http://www.cns.miis.edu/pubs/other/alqwmd.htm

Botulism Facts for Health Care Providers
http://www.bt.cdc.gov/agent/botulism/hcpfacts.asp

Analyzing a bioterror attack on the food supply: The case of botulinum toxin in milk
http://www.pnas.org/cgi/content/full/102/28/9984

Week 5, June 12 discussion question/assignment:
In lieu of the regular discussions we have had to date I want to engage you in a bit of a “Red Cell Exercise” for the next couple of weeks. By the end of this exercise I expect that we’ll have gamed out a pretty good plan of attack. In doing so I hope that this exercise will help you think through the issues of how to best prevent, detect and respond to such an attack.

Feel free to use the information about potential bioweapons agents on our web site.

Assume that you and your team are a reasonably sophisticated, technologically competent, free standing terrorist cell with the funding and connections that will allow you to get a small amount of biological seed-stock and the laboratory manuals from the former Soviet BW program. Discuss how you would mount an biological attack on the target of your choice, at the venue of your choice, at the time of your choosing, with your agent of choice, dispersed as you see fit.

You must be specific in your plans. If, for example you want to steal a crop duster to over fly the Mall during the Beach Boy’s Concert and disperse Ebola on July 4 you have to be prepared to defend your reasoning for that method of attack, your ability to come up with the needed gallons of agent and your assumptions about the effectiveness of the attack.

Each team is to post their plans for attack by Friday June 16th. I’ll respond to each groups plan and we’ll continue the discussions through week six. By the end of this exercise I expect that we’ll have gamed out a pretty good plan of attack.

I’ll be asking you to defend each and every one of your choices.
Professors note: A real, not virtual, bottle of a good Merlot will be sent to each member of the team that develops the plan that I consider the most realistic and likely to succeed.

Week 6, June 19 discussion question is a continuation of the week 5 Red Cell exercise and discussion.

Week 6 Assignment: Due July 12th
For this assignment you will need to download the following PDF. Do not make any copies of this document and Please DELETE it when the assignment is completed. Ms. Katz, the Director of SITE, provided this to us and it is covered by the SITE confidentiality agreement.

Professor’s note:
Of the jihadist’s training manuals that we have reviewed this is the most disturbing and troublesome. While, for obvious reasons we have not attempted to replicate the “experiment” by all accounts it is chillingly accurate.
As an aside, this manual and to a lesser extent the other jihadist’s manuals SITE has shared with us clearly show the intent of post modern terrorists to move to non-conventional weapons. While the other manuals lack the sophistication of the this manual the very fact that they are showing up lends credence to the “not if but when school” of thought regarding the likelihood that we’ll awaken some morning to a CNN special about some unusual disease outbreak AKA the Florida anthrax story.
UNDER NO CIRCUMSTANCES ARE YOU TO ATTEMPT TO VALIDATE THE ACCURACY OF THE” Manual” BY ATTEMPTING TO REPRODUCE THE “EXPERIMENT”.

Assignment Part A.)
Carefully review the jihadist’s training manual on botulism and, as if you were a terrorist intent on duplicating the instructions, go “shopping” on the web to find the supplies and material necessary to complete the “experiment”.